Your Guide to Ad Revenue Trends

A new ad trends study shows that 41 percent of publishers don't expect print ad revenues to decline this year. But, 55 percent do.

Reflecting today’s challenging economic environment, more than half of publishers expect their print advertising revenue to drop this year compared to 2008, according to Publishing Executive’s “2009 Advertising Trends Study,” which was conducted by independent research company Readex Research and included 175 respondents. If there is a silver lining, however, it is the fact that 41 percent say they don’t expect ad revenue from their print publications to decline this year: Almost 20 percent expect an increase, and 22 percent expect that print ad revenue will be flat in ’09.

Last year’s survey looked quite different: Forty-four percent of respondents at this time last year said their print ad revenue would increase in 2008, 30 percent said it would remain the same, and 18 percent said it would decrease.

The picture is even bleaker for business-to-business publishers, 70 percent of whom expect their print ad revenue to drop this year. Fourteen percent of b-to-b publishers expect an increase in their print ad revenue, while 10 percent expect to see no change.

Consumer publishers are the most optimistic of the industry segments polled (b-to-b, consumer and association publishing), with 20 percent anticipating increased print ad revenue in ’09 and 26 percent forecasting no growth, but no decline.

Association publishers’ outlook is less bleak than b-to-b, but also less optimistic than consumer publications: Sixty-one percent expect print ad revenue to drop this year, 18 percent expect growth, and 18 percent expect no change.

Where’s the Growth?
• Online. With print ad revenue declining for much of the industry, the more important question may be: What’s growing? The answer: the Web. Web site advertising came in as the No. 1 growth area—almost a third of respondents expect Web site advertising to be their fastest-growing revenue segment this year. Twenty-nine percent of those who say that online is their fastest-growing segment expect to see growth of 20 percent or more.

While fewer than a third of respondents expect the Web to be their fastest-growing segment, more than half (56 percent) expect ad revenue on their Web sites to grow in 2009, despite the economic climate. On the other hand, 27 percent expect no growth, but no decline. Seven percent expect a decline.

• Print. It may be surprising to learn that 18 percent of respondents expect print magazines to be their fastest-growing segment (which seems to suggest that for the 20 percent who expect print ad revenues to grow this year, print will be the fastest-growing segment).

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