Magazines on E-paper E-reader Displays 'Approaching the Tipping Point,' Says Expert
November 6, 2009 By Erica Cunningham
A recent report issued by research and advisory firm mediaIDEAS projects sales of e-readers to grow from nearly 6 million units in 2010 to 115 million units in 2013, largely due to falling prices and rapidly advancing technology. "The E-Paper E-Reader Phenomenon" outlines the dramatic growth of these display devices over the next 10 years into a $25 billion market. Nick Hampshire, who authored the report, told Publishing Executive Inbox that magazine publishers must recognize the looming shift in the way consumers read content and realize that the "e-reader threat" has arrived and actually presents publishers with a real opportunity. The full report is available at www.mediaideas.net.
INBOX: What are the most significant takeaways from the results of your research?
NICK HAMPSHIRE: The most significant finding of our research has been the rapid future growth of the market. Since the first e-paper e-reader came onto the market in 2004, these devices, with their "green" credentials of reducing paper consumption, have already proven very popular with consumers, and the market for them is booming. By 2006, there were three types of devices available, by 2007, there were five, and currently there are over 40. This number will more than double in the next 12 months. Unit sales are also booming. In 2008, 1.1 million e-paper display-based e-readers were sold, in 2010 that number will rise to about 6 million, and by 2020 global annual e-reader sales will reach 446 million units with a value of over $25 billion.
Another significant result is that the market for e-paper e-readers will divide into four marketplaces by 2020, each with different device specifications and markets. Two of these will feature under 9-inch displays: the "roll-able/foldable" e-reader, similar to a communications device, with sales of 27 million units valued at $3.8 billion in 2020, and the "e-book" e-reader with sales of 115 million units valued at $6.5 billion in 2020. The other two will feature over 9-inch displays, and some significantly larger: first, a monochrome screen-based "paper replacement/newspaper" e-reader with sales of 24 million units valued at $1.2 billion in 2020, and subsequently the high-quality color display-based "magazine" e-reader with sales of 280 million units valued at $14 billion in 2020.
INBOX: What can magazine publishers start doing now in order to capitalize on this phenomenon?
HAMPSHIRE: The publisher must:
1. Be fully ingrained in all aspects of digital magazines and digital publishing. Publishers must bear in mind that regardless of the performance of early digital magazines, the arrival of these new e-paper-based e-readers is going to change the marketplace fundamentally, especially with the arrival of large-screen, high-quality color devices.
2. Be fully ingrained in the repurposing of content so that it fits on any screen, including e-readers. This is just as valid today with digital magazines on a PC as it will be with e-readers.
3. Be ready to distribute content on e-readers (and separately tablet devices like the rumored Apple Tablet) within the next 24 months. The nature of this technology and the power of reading paginated content in an enabling digital context will help to continue the rapid growth and development of this market.
INBOX: What are some of the most effective uses of e-paper e-readers in publishing today? What seems to resonate with consumers?
HAMPSHIRE: Undoubtedly what resonates most with the consumer today is books, and e-book editions are starting to outsell their print equivalents. It is the ability to instantly buy an e-book, to be able to store and carry a whole library in a single portable device, to take notes, increase text size, look up definitions, bookmark pages, but above all it has been the arrival of e-paper display technology with its paper-like reading quality in ambient light that has been the real attraction.
Magazine publishers need to stop believing that the e-reader "threat" is still far away and have to start realizing that this future is rushing toward them at great speed. In 2012, we will see the first real high-quality color "magazine" e-readers with magazine-size displays.
INBOX: How do you see e-paper e-readers influencing publishing in a decade's time?
HAMPSHIRE: With the arrival of high-quality color, low cost, large-screen e-readers within the next few years, we are looking at these devices becoming as ubiquitous as today's cell phone. Whilst people will still be buying and reading content printed on paper in 2020, the bulk of the market for magazine content will be for digital publications primarily viewed on reading devices.
INBOX: The emergence of e-readers (in use and design) seems to have been a relatively slow but steady progression. Is there a possible tipping point for adoption of the technology?
HAMPSHIRE: The market for e-paper e-readers is no longer growing at a snail's pace. We are approaching the tipping point for magazines but are in the midst of it for books. New manufacturers are announcing products on an almost weekly basis. Investments made over the last couple of years, in both e-paper displays and e-readers are now entering production, and new display technologies are about to appear. Unit prices are dropping fast, and should hit the $150 mark in 2011. In 2010, we will see e-paper e-reader sales in excess of 6 million units, up from this year's figure of 2.5 million. This is the beginning of a rapid growth period which will see over 446 million units being produced and sold in 2020.
INBOX: What are the most significant takeaways from the results of your research?
NICK HAMPSHIRE: The most significant finding of our research has been the rapid future growth of the market. Since the first e-paper e-reader came onto the market in 2004, these devices, with their "green" credentials of reducing paper consumption, have already proven very popular with consumers, and the market for them is booming. By 2006, there were three types of devices available, by 2007, there were five, and currently there are over 40. This number will more than double in the next 12 months. Unit sales are also booming. In 2008, 1.1 million e-paper display-based e-readers were sold, in 2010 that number will rise to about 6 million, and by 2020 global annual e-reader sales will reach 446 million units with a value of over $25 billion.
Another significant result is that the market for e-paper e-readers will divide into four marketplaces by 2020, each with different device specifications and markets. Two of these will feature under 9-inch displays: the "roll-able/foldable" e-reader, similar to a communications device, with sales of 27 million units valued at $3.8 billion in 2020, and the "e-book" e-reader with sales of 115 million units valued at $6.5 billion in 2020. The other two will feature over 9-inch displays, and some significantly larger: first, a monochrome screen-based "paper replacement/newspaper" e-reader with sales of 24 million units valued at $1.2 billion in 2020, and subsequently the high-quality color display-based "magazine" e-reader with sales of 280 million units valued at $14 billion in 2020.
INBOX: What can magazine publishers start doing now in order to capitalize on this phenomenon?
HAMPSHIRE: The publisher must:
1. Be fully ingrained in all aspects of digital magazines and digital publishing. Publishers must bear in mind that regardless of the performance of early digital magazines, the arrival of these new e-paper-based e-readers is going to change the marketplace fundamentally, especially with the arrival of large-screen, high-quality color devices.
2. Be fully ingrained in the repurposing of content so that it fits on any screen, including e-readers. This is just as valid today with digital magazines on a PC as it will be with e-readers.
3. Be ready to distribute content on e-readers (and separately tablet devices like the rumored Apple Tablet) within the next 24 months. The nature of this technology and the power of reading paginated content in an enabling digital context will help to continue the rapid growth and development of this market.
INBOX: What are some of the most effective uses of e-paper e-readers in publishing today? What seems to resonate with consumers?
HAMPSHIRE: Undoubtedly what resonates most with the consumer today is books, and e-book editions are starting to outsell their print equivalents. It is the ability to instantly buy an e-book, to be able to store and carry a whole library in a single portable device, to take notes, increase text size, look up definitions, bookmark pages, but above all it has been the arrival of e-paper display technology with its paper-like reading quality in ambient light that has been the real attraction.
Magazine publishers need to stop believing that the e-reader "threat" is still far away and have to start realizing that this future is rushing toward them at great speed. In 2012, we will see the first real high-quality color "magazine" e-readers with magazine-size displays.
INBOX: How do you see e-paper e-readers influencing publishing in a decade's time?
HAMPSHIRE: With the arrival of high-quality color, low cost, large-screen e-readers within the next few years, we are looking at these devices becoming as ubiquitous as today's cell phone. Whilst people will still be buying and reading content printed on paper in 2020, the bulk of the market for magazine content will be for digital publications primarily viewed on reading devices.
INBOX: The emergence of e-readers (in use and design) seems to have been a relatively slow but steady progression. Is there a possible tipping point for adoption of the technology?
HAMPSHIRE: The market for e-paper e-readers is no longer growing at a snail's pace. We are approaching the tipping point for magazines but are in the midst of it for books. New manufacturers are announcing products on an almost weekly basis. Investments made over the last couple of years, in both e-paper displays and e-readers are now entering production, and new display technologies are about to appear. Unit prices are dropping fast, and should hit the $150 mark in 2011. In 2010, we will see e-paper e-reader sales in excess of 6 million units, up from this year's figure of 2.5 million. This is the beginning of a rapid growth period which will see over 446 million units being produced and sold in 2020.
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